Libya

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Q will not go quietly and he may not go swiftly.

We think he should go. Not because he has lost the mandate of the people. But because he is a very bad guy. The bill of particulars drawn against Q dwarf that charged to George III. We know what side we are on. Not a doubt nor a quibble.

We think about the world in terms of good guys and bad guys. We prefer Jefferson to the Council of Vienna. We believe, among other things, that the world is a better place each time the system of government in some part of it becomes less bad. We shall not miss Q. Nor should anyone else. He will go eventually - even if it is merely to the grave. The main question is how many will die before he goes.

The Country
Libya CIA Profile

The World...
The US is confused. Mubarak fell for the stern daddy lectures from the White House. Q will not. Time to wring hands and stare at the Europeans for leadership. Doh.

Europe .... if crises could be bundled and delivered by Fex Ex it could not be packaged more neatly than this one. Europe will of course rise to the occassion. The European leadership will step up together and master this challenge and never even leave home. Any minute now.

Someone else? Who else truly supports the people of Libya? The citizens of Cote d'Ivorie perhaps? Nope - problems of their own. South Africa? Brazil? Japan? Viet Nam? Libya is not much bigger in population than Brooklyn. It doesn't take a superpower to help Libyan people get their country out of the hands of a bad guy.

Where are the Turks in this? And Pakistan, Iraq, Indonesia? The Muslim democracies? How can they stand by? Shame.

except for ...
The Arab League doesn't like this game one bit. Why is that do you suppose?

Egypt should have a big hand to play here but they are in chaos as is Tunisia.

The Russians and Chinese will play for an edge one expects but it will be side bets rather than anteing up.

Chavez has been quiet.

Louis Farakhan has spoken in support of his patron Q.

How to win
This fight has been fought before. Cato died along these shores, by his own hand lest he be embarrassed by Caesar's generosity.Rommel and Montgomery danced here - to and fro on their leashes. In a sense, Faisal and Lawerence tortured the Turk here too.

When the supply line is long it is vulnerable. Big booming gasoline trucks and bullet riddled water tanks soaking the sand. Hit and run. Tanks without fuel are dead. Men without water are dead.

Win the battle of supply.

The lack of population centers inland is pretty clear from these pictures. The picture is potentially misleading though.

Dark means low density not empty. Understanding the tribes is, Q claims, the essence of understanding Libya. They're out there.

The other thing these pictures show is that an army's umbilical cord is long and lonely in Libya. Not the first time that has been true.

If we were Libyan rebels we would fight Q's supply trucks not his tanks. Make allies of the desert. Buy the tribes if needed. Then raid Q's supply train.

From NATO get small Surface to Air missles, resupply of intel, water, fuel, communications, light weapons and medical evac. Delivered by air with NATO air cover as convoy. Throw in some Halal MRE's too. And candy for the kids.

NATO can out supply Q in the Med. Easy.

If you win the supply fight, time becomes your ally. As time passes your power grows. You can move. Your enemy can not. You drink, he sweats. You eat, he starves.

Q's fuel is cash on hand and promises. His burn rate is large. Make it larger. Merc's are expensive. As are loyal generals and colonels. And even privates. They do not fight for Q because they love him. Make them wonder if they'll get paid. Make their wives fear a life on the run with no cash. Freeze the accounts of Q's officer corp. Make their wives howl.

Sanctions. No resupply to Q. No bank accounts. No where to run. Freeze oils payment remittances. Escrow them for the nation of Libya. No weapons. No ammunition. No currencies. No gold. The cash on hand will only last so long. One morning Q will awaken and the first of his orcs will be gone. His generals will look at one another and plan their moves.

Refugees
The sentiments above have great appeal to us. WSe think a fight such as that could be won by the people of Libya with less outside aid than Washington got from the French. It could happen. We hope it does.

But prudence requires us to consider another outcome. That Q will show the beasts of the world that slaughter can confirm and consolidate power. That the realists will come to an accomodation with the bloody handed.

In the event of a Q victory, there will be a significant refugee problem. The World needs to decide how it will be. We have no stomach for another Rwanda.

The World owes the brave people of Libya and escape plan, a new Dunkirk. How many will escape? Where will they go? How will they get there? Who will accept them? Who will pay?